Dominating Tennis

How long are tennis rallies, and what to practise

Win the point by the fourth shot. Train for it.

Key facts

  1. 1

    At Wimbledon from 2015 to 2017, more than 70 % of men's points and more than 65 % of women's ended within four shots.

    Fitzpatrick (2021), Wimbledon 2015–17

  2. 2

    Across more than 25,000 Australian Open first serves, placement predicted aces better than speed.

    Whiteside & Reid (2017), Journal of Sports Sciences

  3. 3

    In 2023 Novak Djokovic hit a +1 forehand on 473 of 945 second-serve points, with 57% won.

    ATP, Beyond the Numbers, November 2023

Why it works

The serve is the only shot you fully control, so it's the shot that makes the next one predictable. A good serve produces a weak return and the +1 finishes. A good return denies the +1 and the point resets.

Either way, the point is decided in the first exchange far more often than in the tenth. Long rallies still matter. They're just rare.

Highlight reels are built from twenty-shot rallies. On television tennis looks like a grinding sport. In the data it's a first-strike sport, and serve +1 and return +1 are the two plays. The rally is what happens when both fail.

The line to say on court

“Most points are over by shot four. Practise shot four.”

Drill: The one-set tally

40 min · alone
  1. Watch one set, from any match or your own. Tally every point as 0-4, 5-8 or 9+ shots. Count the serve as shot one.
  2. Mark three points where a serve +1 or return +1 pattern ended it. Name the pattern.
  3. Work out your 0-4 share and compare it with the published range of 65% to 77%.
Number to beat65% or more of points over by shot four

More drills like this: watch like an analyst

Faults and fixes

Counting a missed return as a rally
It's a one-shot point, and the most common kind.
FixThe serve is shot one. An unreturned serve is a point of length one.
Reading the tally as "rallies don't matter"
Minutes and points are different currencies.
FixSay "most points", never "all the tennis".
Copying the tour split to your practice
Your serve doesn't force replies the way a pro's does.
FixTally your own set first and set your practice hour from that.

Questions players ask

How many shots are in the average tennis point?

In pro tennis the median rally is three shots on clay and two on grass and hard courts, and the most common length is one shot.

Is serve speed or placement more important for aces?

Placement. Across more than 25,000 Australian Open first serves, placement predicted aces better than speed.

Should I stop practising long rallies?

No. Rallying builds the fitness and strokes you need for the roughly 30% of points that go long. The share of practice you give to serve, return and the next ball is a coach's call, best set from a tally of your own matches.

What is serve plus one in tennis?

It's the serve and the server's next shot, planned together. A good serve produces a weak return and the +1 finishes the point.

What this doesn't cover

The 0-4 share counts points, not minutes or drama, and some analysts argue that changes the picture. The Match Charting Project over-samples televised matches. The tour figures describe pros, and your own tally at club level may differ.

Sources

Read next

Play the pointWhat is serve plus one in tennis, and how to use itServe plus one means planning your serve and the next shot as one play. On the deuce side, serve wide to pull the returner past the sideline, then hit your forehand into the open court. The serve is the only shot you fully control, so use it to make the reply predictable. Decide the plus one before you toss.Play the pointHow to build a point in tennisTo build a point, play it in three acts: open with a ball that makes them move, build by keeping them moving while you read the reply, and finish only when the reply is short, high or hit from off the bisector. Most amateurs only play the finish, from everywhere. The reading is the skill. The finish is the easy part.Know the gameWhich tennis stats actually predict who winsThe tennis stats that track the result are the quiet ones: second-serve points won, what happens by the fourth shot, and the few points with real leverage, like break points. Aces, winners and errors describe the last shot, not why the match was won. About two points in three end within four shots, and the box score never tells you that.TrainHow to plan a one-hour tennis practice sessionA good one-hour tennis session has a skeleton: an eight-minute ramp, one technical block with one cue and one constraint, live-ball transfer, and a scored close played tired. Pick one priority before you start. Then write down three numbers before you leave, such as first serves to a target, depth hits and unforced errors, so next week has something to beat.